Signals · published by 11:00 a.m. ET
The marketswhere D seesan edge.
D prices every market and finds many of them mispriced. Signals are the rare ones with an edge and a near-term reason the market may reach D’s price.
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
- Market
- 29¢
- D fair
- 41¢
- Edge
- +0¢
+0%
Average paper return
0%
Win rate, closed only
0
Signals published
0
Currently open
Everything D prices
Most markets are fair. Those are worth saying out loud.
A Signal only means something if you can see what did not qualify. D publishes a price on every market it tracks, and marks the handful it reads as mispriced.
A Signal, end to end
One edge, one reason, one exit.
Worked example
Polymarket
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
- Market
- NO · 29¢
- D fair
- NO · 41¢
- Edge
- +0¢
- Exit
- 7-day exit
+0%
simulated paper return, closed at the exit window
Why it was published
The market is pricing a June release off a single roadmap leak. D reads that leak against shipping cadence, disclosed compute commitments and three ranked lab sources, and puts the release later. The near-term reason is the developer keynote on May 19: a keynote that ships no date pulls the market toward D's price inside a week.
Published
May 2 · 29¢
NO opened at 29 cents with a 12 cent edge and a defined seven-day exit.
Catalyst
May 19 · 52¢
Developer keynote ships no release date. The market begins to reprice.
Exit window
May 26 · 74¢
Seven-day window closes. Paper exit marked at the venue midpoint.
Resolved
Jun 15 · 100¢
Contract resolved NO. The paper position had already closed at exit.
What is a Signal
A forecast tells you what D expects. A Signal adds three things.
An edge
The gap between the venue price and D's price, stated in cents, at the moment of publication. No edge, no Signal.
A near-term reason
A dated, nameable event that could pull the market toward D's price: a hearing, a print, a keynote, a deadline. Not a vibe.
A defined exit
A window, fixed before publication, at which the paper position is marked. It closes whether the call worked or not.
Track record · Jan 2026 to Sep 2026
Published before the outcome was known.
+0%
Average paper return per Signal
0%
Win rate, closed positions only
0
Published Signals · 9 open, 55 closed
How D forecasts
Read everything. Rank everyone. Price the question.
D reads the record continuously and weighs each expert by how their past calls actually resolved, not by how confidently they were made.
6,000+
global sources read every day
1,000+
ranked experts scored on past calls
4
domains: geopolitics, tech, macro, AI
Research Lab
The Lab studies outcomes so the next forecast starts sharper.
Every resolved question is evidence about the method that produced it. The Lab turns that evidence into changes in how D weighs sources, experts and reasons.
- 01Evidence6,000+ sources, deduplicated and dated.
- 02Judgment1,000+ ranked experts, weighted by past accuracy.
- 03ForecastA price on every market D tracks.
- 04OutcomeResolution recorded against the forecast.
- 05Research LabOutcomes studied for what moved and what missed.
- 06FindingsWeights updated. The next forecast starts sharper.
Call accuracy and calibration
When D says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? Every closed forecast is scored against its stated probability and binned into a calibration curve.
Signal outcomes and timing
Edge is only half of a Signal. The Lab measures whether the near-term reason actually moved the market inside the exit window, and retires the reasons that stop working.
Forecasting beyond markets
Not every question has a contract. The Lab tests whether the same method holds on questions no venue lists, so the system improves faster than the markets it reads.
Featured report
Whose Iran calls held up?
541 predictions · 126 experts
A retrospective scoring of every public Iran forecast made between January and July, ranked by Brier score and grouped by the kind of evidence each expert leaned on.
Membership
What members get.
Every qualifying Signal on publication
Delivered the moment it clears the edge threshold, by 11:00 a.m. ET on publishing days.
All D forecasts across markets
Not only the Signals. The full price on every market D tracks, including the ones D reads as fair.
Complete Signal context
Direction, entry, fair price, market price, edge, thesis, target and a direct link to the market.
The complete track record
Open and closed positions, entry and exit prices, and the reasoning that was published before the outcome was known.
Access
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Before you connect a wallet.
New Signals publish by 11:00 a.m. ET on days when a market clears the edge threshold. Some days produce several. Some days produce none. A Signal is published only when D finds both an edge and a near-term reason the market may reach its price.