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Track record · Jan 2026 to Sep 2026

Every Signal, priced before the outcome was known.

Paper results assume you transact at the published price with no slippage, no fees and no size limit. Read them as a measure of the forecast, not as a return to expect.

+0%

Average paper return per Signal

0%

Win rate, closed positions only

0

Published · 9 open, 55 closed

Closed positions

Selected closed results.

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ContractSideEntryExitPathReturnStatus
Powell replaced as Fed chair in 2026?NO14¢93¢
+564%Won · Aug 1, 2026
EU passes the AI Liability Directive in 2026?NO44¢19¢
−57%Lost · Jul 14, 2026
Apple ships a foldable in H1 2026?NO22¢91¢
+314%Won · Jun 30, 2026
Starship reaches orbit before July?YES33¢96¢
+191%Won · Jun 12, 2026
Nvidia beats Q1 guidance by 10% or more?YES41¢97¢
+137%Won · May 28, 2026
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?NO29¢74¢
+155%Won · May 26, 2026
Iran strikes Gulf shipping before April?NO31¢88¢
+184%Won · Apr 1, 2026
OPEC+ announces a production cut in Q1?NO27¢85¢
+215%Won · Mar 31, 2026
Fed cuts 50bp or more in March?NO18¢94¢
+422%Won · Mar 19, 2026
US government shutdown in February?YES36¢
−75%Lost · Feb 28, 2026

The full ledger, including open positions and the reasoning published with each Signal, is available to members inside the app.

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How it is counted

Three rules, fixed in advance.

Entry is the price at publication

Not a better price found later. The venue's quoted price at the moment the Signal went out.

Exit is the stated window, or resolution

Whichever comes first. The window is fixed before publication and never moved afterwards.

Nothing is removed after the fact

Losses stay in. No Signal is added retroactively, and no Signal is quietly retired.